European variation (The Hindu - 5 June 2017)

     With global politics in a flux, India must make a careful choice of coalitions it forges

      Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Germany, Spain, Russia and France brings into sharp focus the shared dilemma India and Europe face with America’s shifting policies, and the resultant flux on the world stage. Mr. Modi’s first stop in Germany came a day after Chancellor Angela Merkel’s strong comments aimed at President Donald Trump, that Europe could no longer ‘depend’ on traditional partners. Europe’s disappointment with Mr. Trump at the G-7 and NATO summits was three-fold: his refusal to reaffirm NATO’s Article 5 on ‘collective defence’; his warning on the trade deficit with Europe; and his expected decision to pull America out of commitments in the Paris Agreement on climate change. For the past few months India has faced a similar disappointment as the U.S. has forged closer ties with China, indicating what Mr. Modi called a loosening of the world order, while the U.S. has targeted Indian professionals and businesses to protect American jobs. Another blow came from Mr. Trump’s comments on the Paris Accord when he blamed India and China for what he called an unfair deal. Mr. Modi’s meetings with Ms. Merkel and subsequently Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and French President Emmanuel Macron saw those issues raised one way or another, as they tried to explore new ways to cooperate on multilateral issues, including terror, trade and climate change. In particular, Mr. Modi’s assurance in Berlin that the suspended India-EU free trade talks for the Broadbased Trade and Investment Agreement would resume soon has raised the hope that progress will be made before the EU-India summit in Delhi this year.

      However, while the EU and India have a clear convergence in many areas, a dependable alliance can only come from a concurrent worldview. It cannot be ignored, for example, that Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s visit to Berlin and Brussels, also last week, saw the EU repose much more faith in Beijing than New Delhi would be comfortable with, given the current Sino-Indian tensions. European leaders praised President Xi Jinping’s leadership on connectivity and climate change. Europe perceives its single largest threat to be from Moscow, not Beijing. Mr. Modi’s attendance at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum to unveil a new India-Russia vision statement for the 21st century along with President Vladimir Putin could cause similar discomfort in European capitals. This divergent worldview may be further highlighted this week as Mr. Modi travels to Kazakhstan to formalise India’s membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, seen as a counter-NATO coalition of Russia, China and Central Asian states. Standing at a crossroads few had expected at this stage, India will have to consider its options carefully as it decides which coalitions to forge as the U.S. overturns traditional ties in favour of transactionalism. The Centre must undertake a full review of India’s priorities and interests before Mr. Modi heads to Washington for a meeting with Mr. Trump at the end of June.

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Engaging Europe (The Indian Express - 5 June 2017)

     PM Modi did well to reaffirm India’s strategic partnerships with Russia and France. The new global imperatives call for it.   

  

     As America enters an uncertain era and great power relations turn turbulent, India is eager to sustain two of its long-standing strategic partnerships with Russia and France. That was the main message from the second leg of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s European sojourn last week. In the first part of the four-nation tour that took the PM to Germany and Spain, Modi’s emphasis was on exploring the new avenues of cooperation with Germany and other European nations that Delhi has long neglected. Just before Modi arrived in the old continent, President Donald Trump was there shocking America’s European allies with his boorish personal behaviour and anti-globalist worldview. Coupled with Trump’s warmth towards China and Russia, the unfolding Western divide has begun to complicate the assumptions of India’s international calculus since the end of the Cold War. Sharpening the case for a fresh Indian look at its external environment was Trump’s rant against India in announcing the decision to quit the 2015 Paris accord on climate change after his return to Washington.

     Amidst this new international fluidity, Delhi appreciates the need to minimise the emerging friction in the old partnership with Moscow. That India has been anxious about Russia’s drift towards China and Pakistan has not been a secret. Modi’s talks with President Putin did not end the differences on assessing the regional situation. For Putin sidestepped questions on Kashmir and signaled that Russia will continue to improve ties with Pakistan. Modi’s focus in Moscow was on limiting political differences with Putin and revitalising the stagnant commercial engagement with Russia. If Modi turned on his personal charm to reboot the trust-based relationship with Putin, his mission to Paris about establishing rapport with President Emmanuel Macron who has just taken charge of France. Paris has always been an exception to India’s ambivalent relationship with the West, and Modi appears to have won Macron’s commitment to build on the special relationship with France in the areas of high technology and defence and extend it to counter terrorism.

     Macron’s decision to accompany Modi to a memorial for Indian soldiers who fought in France during the First World War is an acknowledgement not just of Delhi’s past contribution to European geopolitics, but its future role in ordering this vital region. In aligning with Europe on mitigating climate change amidst US pull out of the Paris Accord and navigating the current divisions between Russia on the one hand and Germany and France on the other, Modi has shown some diplomatic finesse. But to play the long game in these tumultuous times, the PM must get his domestic economic and security decision-making upto speed with the new global imperatives.

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Modi in Germany: India must cement mutually beneficial ties with an evolving EU (The Times of India - 01 June 2017)

Marking growing warmth in bilateral ties, India and Germany have signed a slew of pacts covering cyber security, urban development, vocational education and infrastructure during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the European nation. In fact, Modi even took the opportunity to emphasise that India and Germany are made for each other. There’s great scope for synergy. German investments in Indian infrastructure under the Make In India framework or the Smart Cities initiative can do wonders for the Indian economy. Meanwhile, India is a huge market for German companies – an equation that Berlin would like to strengthen further.

Germany today is looking for stable partners in the developing world in light of uncertainties in the overall global order. Europe, for example, is undergoing fundamental shifts following Brexit. Add to this US President Donald Trump trying to modify America-Europe relations by asking EU members to shoulder greater responsibility for their defence. Trump has also criticised the American trade deficit with Germany, stating this needed to change. All of this compelled German Chancellor Angela Merkel to comment that the US and UK may no longer be completely reliable partners.

It’s in this context that Modi’s ongoing Europe tour needs to be seen. Germany has decided to play the role of sheet anchor of EU and is even quietly going about laying the foundation of a combined European defence force by integrating military divisions from smaller European nations. Then there is Germany’s determination on climate change mitigation efforts – something that isn’t shared by Trump. And with Emmanuel Macron – a strong Europhile – being elected French President, the Germany-France relationship is likely to shape the future direction of Europe. This is precisely why Modi’s schedule also includes visits to Spain and France. As EU evolves, India would do well to reaffirm its support to the European bloc and push for investments and technology transfers.

Besides, it needs to be borne in mind that China too is eyeing developments in EU for its own strategic interests. For New Delhi to not lose out to Beijing, the former should devote more resources to actualising the India-EU free trade agreement. As Europe emerges from America’s shadows it will become a veritable standalone pole of the multipolar global order. India needs to capitalise on this and take ties with the continent to the next level.

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