Restive Gulf (The Indian Express- 8 June 2017)

     A mercantilist approach to the Qatar crisis will not serve India’s strategic and energy concerns in West Asia

    It is tempting to see the Gulf Cooperation Council’s (GCC) diplomatic offensive against Qatar as a rerun of earlier spats in West Asia. That seems to be the understanding behind New Delhi’s cautious reaction to Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, Bahrain and Yemen cutting off ties as well as transport to Qatar, sparked by an alleged statement of support for Iran by its Emir, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. Expressing concern for the over six lakh Indian workers in Qatar, Minister for External Affairs Sushma Swaraj, while asserting that the current row was an internal matter for the GCC, said that New Delhi is “trying to assess who and how many are stuck in the middle, and then we will move”. Securing the Indian diaspora in the Gulf is, of course, of paramount importance. New Delhi must, however, look at the current crisis, and West Asia and North Africa as a whole, from a broader prism than just Indian labour in the region.

The latest developments are symptomatic of a structural change in the Gulf, with Saudi Arabia’s worries about Iran’s influence evidently sharpening. Since the “Arab Spring”, the Iran-Saudi rivalry has been playing out in civil wars, diplomatic manoeuvrings and internal conflicts in Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Egypt. Against this backdrop, Qatar has often tried to play all sides: It was the only GCC country to support the Muslim Brotherhood — which has officially sworn off violence but is still accused of terrorism by many in the GCC — sided with Turkey in the Syrian civil war, and is perceived to be backing Iran. For the Sunni-ruled countries of the GCC, that has serious implications — Bahrain, for example, has a restive Shia majority ruled by a Sunni monarchy. Qatar is also a US ally and houses arguably its most important military base in the region. President Donald Trump’s reversal of his predecessor’s policy of relative non-interference has not helped.

     The situation in West Asia only looks to be escalating if the serial attacks in Tehran, for which the Islamic State has taken responsibility, are any indication. The pressure on Qatar seems to be aimed at changing its policy direction, making it fall in line with Saudi interests. If Iran intervenes or the royal family feud continues, Delhi should be prepared to evacuate its people. Over the longer term, India can’t continue with a mercantilist approach to the Gulf. The region’s salience to India’s strategic and energy concerns demand a deeper engagement.

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Arab split: Qatar’s isolation by its neighbours exacerbates Middle East tensions (The Times of India - 7 June 2017)

     With Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain and Egypt cutting off ties with Qatar, the Arab world has plunged into further turmoil. Yemen, Libya’s eastern-based government and the Maldives too have joined the ban against Qatar which sees a severing of diplomatic ties with Doha apart from blocking off land, air and sea routes to the gas-rich nation. The immediate provocation for the move appears to be statements purportedly made by Qatar’s emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, supporting Muslim Brotherhood and criticising the Sunni coalition against Iran. However, tensions have been brewing over Qatar’s actions within the Gulf Cooperation Council for years.

     Qatar’s position within the coalition of Gulf Arab nations has been different from other members. Although Doha sees itself as a neutral mediator, its support for groups representing political Islam such as the Palestinian Hamas and the Brotherhood has riled Riyadh. Plus, Qatar is seen as soft on Iran with which it shares the world’s largest gas field. That Qatar’s isolation by its powerful neighbours comes just weeks after US President Donald Trump used his Saudi visit to squarely blame Iran for fuelling extremism in the region may not be a coincidence. Riyadh could be using this opportunity to curb dissent within the Sunni flock and get them to line up behind it.

     The ban against Qatar will certainly hurt the Qatari economy, which will impact the many Indians working there. Most of Qatar’s food supplies are imported via Saudi Arabia and Doha has emerged as an international aviation hub. These are bound to be affected. However, signs are that Qatar is looking to negotiate its way out of the blockade, having stated that the statements attributed to Sheikh Thani were the handiwork of hackers. If the US is not in its corner, Qatar has few options.

     This is a pity as Shia-Sunni sectarian strife will only provide a fillip to terror groups such as Islamic State. What’s needed is for Arab countries to work out a compact with Iran. Given US interests in the region, this is precisely what Washington ought to be facilitating. As far as India is concerned, New Delhi has done well to state this is an internal matter for the Gulf countries to handle. Its only focus should be to provide assistance – if required – to Indians in Qatar.

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